As highlighted by the UN development goals and the European Climate Law, climate change is a reality to which society needs to adapt. The possibility to address the adaptation issue lies on our ability to include climate change into impact studies.Until recently, climate modellers did not have the capability to generate long-term projections at a spatial and temporal resolution useful for impact studies as risk assessment for agriculture. The advent of kilometer-scale atmospheric models (convection-permitting models, CPMs), with a spatial resolution closer to what modellers in the field of agriculture need, enables those impact studies. Climate model ensembles are used to evaluate the uncertainties related with the climate change signal. An open question remains on how climate change uncertainties will propagate into impact models such as the ones used to estimate the effects of climate on agriculture. When using climate model as input, the weight of climate projection uncertainties affects the output of the impact model.This research aims to investigate the impact of using high-resolution climate model into models applied to estimate agricultural productivity to learn how to deal with uncertainties to provide examples of good practice, storylines and a clear message to stakeholders and policymakers. The study will rely on climate data accessible from the EU Copernicus project (the global ERA-5 reanalysis, CPM data created under the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study).

The ideal candidate will have experience with impact models and statistical analysis. Specific skills in the field of climate science and with large climate dataset will be considered a plus. Moreover, the candidate should be strongly motivated to work in a multi-disciplinary environment, collaborating with the STEM and social scientists of the CARISMA research centre and beyond.

IUSS mission is to provide advanced education to undergraduate and graduate students, as well as fundamental and applied research in the fields of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM), and Human, Social and Life Sciences. At IUSS, PhD candidates will find an open multidisciplinary environment offering real opportunities for developing academic and professional tools for facing the challenges arising from increasing complexity and fast changes in the society and the environment. IUSS is always and actively committed towards internationalisation, inclusion and diversity. The selected candidate will join the research centre on Climate change impAct studies for RISk MAnagement (CARISMA). The CARISMA team is composed by STEM and Social scientists working in the prism of climate change on: data analysis and modelling of Earth system and economic system processes; impact assessment of extreme natural events and anthropogenic activities on human and natural environments; risk management of natural and anthropogenic hazards; formulation and proposal of new economic, political and legal models of sustainable development. Within CARISMA,G. Fosser is an expert in climate modelling at convective-scale, extreme events, climate change uncertainties analysis and impact studies . B. Monteleone works on the assessment of the impacts of extreme events on agriculture through the use of crop models.