Power and gas prices are strongly influenced by both consumption and the availability of renewable sources of energy, in turn directly linked to weather variables like wind, incoming solar radiation at the surface, precipitation, temperature and snow melting. Short-term weather forecast thus plays a key role in the European energy sector, also for the impacts on power trading efficacy. The reliability of the short-term weather forecast impacts the European energy market movements and price. Seasonal forecast with their time-window of 3 to 6 months can help answer questions such as: "Will there be sufficient water reserves in mountain basins to allow for efficient planning of hydroelectric production?" and thus be crucial for the energy sector. Therefore, being able to exploit the weather information at different temporal scales would be a valuable support to anticipate market behaviours and prices.In this context, the project aims at investigating and understanding the sources of uncertainty in weather and seasonal forecast products (e.g. linked to weather regimes or ENSO) and thus on the renewable energy production in Europe. The purpose is to merge the atmospheric and climate physics with statistical analysis and machine learning to provide end-users with more reliable weather and seasonal forecasts. To this end, the successful candidate will spend 12 months at A2A in Milano.

The ideal candidate should have a strong background in data analysis and statistics (analysis of probability distribution functions, uncertainties, etc.) and be familiar with the management of large datasets. Good programming skills are required, while experience with machine learning and/or a background in meteorology or in climate dynamics will be an added value.

The research activity will be carried out in the CARISMA group at IUSS Pavia, in collaboration with A2A in Milano and supported by ISAC CNR in Bologna. The CARISMA team is composed by STEM and Social scientists studying climate change and its associated impacts and risk.A2A is an Italian multiutility active in several fields: generation of electricity from different sources, distribution and sale of electricity and natural gas, district heating, waste collection and treatment, electric mobility, public lighting, water service.CNR-ISAC aims at the understanding of the atmosphere, climate and Earth system sciences in a multidisciplinary approach.