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Closed for application
Scholarship code CU3.12

The impact of climate change on the future energy system

  • Reference person
    Marco
    Gaetani
    marco.gaetani@iusspavia.it
  • Host University/Institute
    IUSS Pavia
  • Internship
    Y
  • Research Keywords
    Climate change impact
    Future energy system
    Availability of energy resources
  • Reference ERCs
    PE8_6
    SH7_5
    SH7_9
  • Reference SDGs
    GOAL 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
    GOAL 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
    GOAL 13: Climate Action
  • Studente
  • Supervisor
  • Co-Supervisor

Description

Climate is a main driver for many dynamics of the energy system: the availability of renewable sources, such as hydro, solar and wind, very much depend on rain, radiation, and wind patterns; demand for space cooling and heating is related to temperatures, among others; the availability of waste biomass from agriculture depends on crop yields; moreover, efficiency of several technologies, e.G. Heat pumps, batteries and power networks, varies with temperature.In such a context, analysing the impact of a changing climate on the energy system can be key for planning the path towards the decarbonisation of the energy system. Such planning process is usually based on models of the whole energy system that rely on historical series of climate conditions or past trends and correlations.The research topic thus deals with the analysis of the implications of climate change on demands, resources and efficiencies, as well as other potentially affected segments of the future energy system. The analysis should provide insights on the impact not only of single aspects of climate change (e.G. Higher temperature), but also of compound events that could have much worse cumulative implication for the energy sector (e.G. A dry winter followed by a hot summer is likely to lead to high cooling demand and low sources for hydro power plants to cover peak loads). The analysis should also consider the spatial dimension of the problem to properly take into account the energy connections between geographical areas characterised by different present and future climate conditions (e.G. High demand of power in the North bidding zone and high availability of renewable resources in the South bidding zone).The research crosscuts two different fields of knowledge: the climate science on the one hand, and the energy system analysis and modelling on the other hand. Climate variables related to the energy sector will be extracted from observational and reanalysis dataset, and from state-of-the-art climate simulations, like regional climate model from CORDEX and convection-permitting models from CORDEX-FPS CONV, for the historical and future climate. The analysis of climate data will provide an assessment of the changes expected to impact the energy system (e.G. Heat waves and cold spells occurrence, intense precipitation and droughts as well as compound events). Climate analysis will be then integrated into energy system models developed and used within the RELAB group of Politecnico di Milano. Non-climate related data and assumptions of these models should be set according to national and international policy scenarios (e.G. Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan and Long-term strategy).

Suggested skills:

The ideal candidate should have a strong background in data analysis and statistics (analysis of probability distribution functions, uncertainties, etc.) and be familiar with the management of large datasets. He/she should preferably have basic knowledge of the energy system and its sectors, as well as its possible interactions with weather and climate.

Research team and environment

The activities will be carried out mostly in the energy scenarios area of the RELAB group at the Department of Energy of Politecnico di Milano, in close collaboration with the climate scientists of the CARISMA group at IUSS Pavia.The energy scenarios area analyses the possible evolution of energy systems over medium to long-term time horizons by using and developing energy system models and hourly simulation tools and by performing data analyses. It studies critical issues such as the integration of large shares of renewables into future energy systems, the role of more efficient technologies and innovative conversion processes, possible developments in end-use electrification and their systemic implications (e.G. Electric vehicles, heat pumps). The analyses aim at providing indications on how to achieve national and international strategic targets, such as the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The working group collaborates and interacts with important stakeholders (private actors, research bodies, public institutions) involved in the sustainable energy transition at national level.The CARISMA team is composed by STEM and Social scientists working in the prism of climate change on: data analysis and modelling of Earth system and economic system processes; impact assessment of extreme natural events and anthropogenic activities on human and natural environments; risk management of natural and anthropogenic hazards; formulation and proposal of new economic, political and legal models of sustainable development.IUSS and Politecnico di Milano are actively committed towards internationalisation, inclusion and diversity.